Gone by Christmas? Or making it into the New Year? 

Theresa May has had probably her bleakest week yet with her frail Cabinet losing another Minister. But will Mrs May be able to weather this storm, and will she still be PM by Christmas?

What a week it’s been for the Prime Minister. No seven days pass like a stroll in the park for Theresa May, but this one just takes the biscuit. 

On Tuesday I was listening to the Nigel Farage Show on LBC Radio, and a caller phoned-in saying, "were the government a corporate business, Theresa May would be long gone along with some of her ministers for their misconduct this week." 

Now of course the government isn’t a corporation. Nor are we living in normal political circumstances. And this is an administration built on a deck of cards. 

With Sir Michael Fallon's resignation for sexual abuse allegations, Boris’ blunder on the case of a British woman imprisoned in Iran and Priti Patel resigning for secret meetings with Israeli officials, it’s certainly caused a great head-ache for Mrs May. 

But can this fragile government survive anymore blows? 

This administration is full of divisions, propped up with ten DUP MPs. And what a long time it is since “strong and stable” reverberated across the country’s news headlines.

But now the Prime Minister finds herself walking a tight rope. Desperately trying to keep her government together, let alone trying to strike a good Brexit deal. 

And yes remember that thing called Brexit? The past two weeks have completely overshadowed the most pertinent thing facing Britain in her modern history. 

But this is the problem for Mrs May. Anymore cabinet resignations, either for sexual misconduct or failing to follow collective responsibility, then the PM can kiss goodbye to organising any Brexit deal. Surely? 

Could she still limp on?

If Boris makes another sackable gaffe, or a fellow Cabinet Minister makes a bit of a hash of things similar to Priti Patel, then my initial feeling is I can’t see how this government won’t collapse. 

Many people are saying Mrs May will be gone from Downing Street as early as Christmas.

And perhaps she will. But in the same breath, I feel she may just limp on and cling onto power for a while longer. 

Why? Because the Tories are in sheer dread of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. 

Four options?

Over the next few weeks, maybe even days, there may be four options facing the Prime Minister. 

Firstly, Mrs May could resign. But can we conceivably believe she’d do so? She knows full well, as do the rest of the Tories, that there isn’t really anyone who could replace her or anyone who would want to in such dire circumstances. 

Secondly, she could call an election. But with things so bleak and the thought of a likely Labour victory on the cards, I don’t feel this option is screaming out to her either. 

Thirdly the PM might seek to reshuffle her whole Cabinet to reassert her authority. But with her party so divided, there’s not an array of allies to pursue her vision of Brexit. 

And finally, she may just plaster over this gushing wound with bandage after bandage to hold onto power. 

Hanging on by a thread

And it is to the final option that I think is what will happen. With the Prime Minister replacing Priti Patel with Penny Mordaunt as International Development Secretary, she’s certainly preserved the balance between Brexiteers and Remainers in the Cabinet. 

And if she can keep a lid on anymore scandals causing for Ministers to resign, then Mrs May may just indeed be hearing the bongs of Big Ben in Downing Street on the 1st January. 

But she is running out of ministers to replace with to balance the Cabinet and hold onto her authority. 

For the time being though it may just be working, and preventing the possibility of Prime Minister Corbyn from happening. 


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