New official projections reveal year UK population will hit record 71 million

The UK's population is projected to reach 71 million by 2034, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics.

This is at a slower rate than previously estimated - with the figures revised down to reflect the recent sharp fall in net migration, as well as lower fertility rates in the future.

Population growth is projected to slow even further during the 2030s and 2040s, peaking at 72.5 million in 2054 before going into decline.

The population of England is projected to peak at 62.1 million in mid‑2056, while Wales is projected to peak at 3.2 million in mid‑2035, Scotland at 5.6 million in mid‑2033, and Northern Ireland at 1.9 million in mid‑2031.

Net migration - the difference between the number of people moving long-term to the country and the number leaving - is expected to be the only driver of UK population growth during the next few decades. It stood at an estimated 204,000 in the year to June 2025, down 69% from 649,000 in the previous 12 months.

Deaths in the UK are projected to outnumber births over the ten years until 2034 by 450,000.

But an additional 2.2 million people are projected to be added to the population through net migration over the same period, resulting in an overall growth projection of 1.7 million - up 2.5% from 69.3 million.

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In the 10 years between mid-2024 and mid-2034, it is projected that:

• 6,396,000 people will be born
• 6,846,000 people will die
• 7,278,000 people will immigrate long term to the UK
• 5,096,000 people will emigrate long term from the UK

Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the number of people of pensionable age is set to rise by 1.8 million, from 12.4 million to 14.2 million - that's around one in five of the population, and takes into account the planned increases in state pension age to 67 years for both sexes.

By contrast, the number of children under the age of 16 is projected to decrease by 1.6 million, from 12.6 million to 11 million.

By the time the UK population is projected to peak in 2054, pensioners will account for 22% of the total and under-16s will make up 14.5%.

Beyond 2054, the population projection falls from 72.5 million to 72.1 million by 2064 and 71.4 million in 2074, according to the ONS projections. They are based on current and past trends and are adjusted as these change.

(c) Sky News 2026: New official projections reveal year UK population will hit record 71 million