SNP is Scotland's biggest winner with pressure for independence vote likely to follow

Before the polls even opened on Thursday, one thing everyone knew for sure was that the SNP would be the largest party in Holyrood.

The outstanding questions were by what margin, and whether they would get a majority.

Well, now we know.

Politics latest updates: Starmer vows to fight on

The SNP are by far the biggest party in the chamber. However, the much-coveted majority which First Minister John Swinney craved failed to materialise.

In the coming days there will be discussions about what happens next, but Holyrood now has 69 pro-independence MSPs with the Scottish Greens putting in their best ever electoral performance - making them potential king makers in Holyrood.

There are a lot of unknowns.

Will the first minister use this to try and force the UK government into another independence referendum?

Probably, yes - but the fact that the SNP failed to get a majority on their own makes the situation a whole lot more difficult for the party.

However, what is incredibly interesting is the position Scottish Labour finds itself in.

In August 2024, I attended an SNP conference after the general election of that summer and it's fair to say the mood was dire.

There was a quiet expectation that with the surge of UK Labour in that election, the party's leader Anas Sarwar was a heavy favourite to be the next first minister.

The leader of the Scottish Labour Party effectively conceded the election upon his arrival to the count yesterday in Glasgow. This came as party sources were texting journalists about the "bad, very bad" situation unfolding across the country as the votes were counted.

It turned out to be a dark day for Scottish Labour, as the party saw its traditional heartlands continue to slip away.

However, at the end of the count in Glasgow a glimmer of light flickered through as leader Anas Sarwar, Pauline McNeill, and tipped future leadership contender Paul Sweeney all secured their return to Holyrood via the regional list.

This ensured that some of the party's most senior voices remain to fight another day.

The most pressing issue is what the party does next.

Read more:
English council elections analysis in maps and charts

Sarwar's leadership has clearly not panned out the way it was expected too - but some of that can be blamed on just how unpopular Sir Keir Starmer is on the doorsteps.

It may be time for Scottish Labour to fully distance itself from the UK wide party, because for Scottish voters it clearly seems that there is not a big enough dividing line.

For years now, it has been wrongly believed that Scotland was a unique place, where people were not susceptible to insurgent populism and that figures like Nigel Farage would never be truly endorsed by the electorate.

Yesterday proved that Scotland is no longer the exception to the rule; the rampant rise of Reform has shattered the illusion of Scottish immunity to populism, proving that the political shifts seen elsewhere are now a permanent fixture here.

Reform's second place finish, tied with Scottish Labour, has redrawn the map forever. There is a new reality where the traditional parties now sit on a level pegging with new insurgent forces.

The Scottish Conservatives suffered a horrendous collapse, slumping to their worst ever Holyrood performance and finishing in first place - officially losing their status as the voice of the right, to Reform.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Liberal Democrats enjoyed a quiet resurgence, nearly doubling their 2021 tally of MSPs by using smart local campaigns and focusing on day to day issues across Scotland.

As Holyrood enters this new term, the SNP remain the dominant force but may have to rely heavily on the strengthened Scottish Greens to fulfil their ambitions.

With Scottish Labour and Reform now tied for second, Scotland now faces a more divided parliament which will likely complicate the path forward for both the government and the opposition.

(c) Sky News 2026: SNP is Scotland's biggest winner with pressure for independence vote likely to follow