The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next

The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett

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Thursday, 12 March 2026 - 1 hour 29 minutes

White House war advisor ROBERT PAPE reveals why Trump is trapped in a war with Iran, the risk of a nuclear breakout, the role of China in the conflict, and how the US is losing control of the Middle East.

Robert Pape is a renowned political scientist and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War.

He explains:

▪️The 3 stages of the escalation trap locking the US into war

▪️Why precision smart bombs trick leaders into strategic failure

▪️The hidden reality of Iran's 400kg enriched uranium stockpile

▪️How killing the Supreme Leader made the Iranian regime more resilient

▪️The pattern that connects Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran

Chapters

• 00:00:00 Intro
• 00:02:01 What’s Really Happening In The World Right Now
• 00:04:01 I’ve Worked With The White House For The Last 20 Years
• 00:04:48 What Iran War Simulations Reveal About The Next Conflict
• 00:08:56 What Really Happened When The U.S. Bombed Iran’s Nuclear Sites
• 00:11:57 Does Removing A Leader Actually Collapse A Regime?
• 00:16:05 Iran’s New Supreme Leader May Be Even More Hostile To The U.S.
• 00:26:04 The Escalation Scenario Most People Aren’t Paying Attention To
• 00:41:12 Ads
• 00:43:11 What The Next U.S.–Iran War Could Actually Look Like
• 00:47:31 What Happens If The U.S. Hadn’t Bombed Iran - Would War Be Worse?
• 00:52:06 Does Trump Really Influence Netanyahu’s Decisions?
• 00:54:02 Are Trump’s Global Decisions Driven By Legacy?
• 01:04:30 Could The World Be Heading Toward Another Genocide?
• 01:05:52 What Happens After “Stage 3”
• 01:07:14 Ads
• 01:12:11 China’s Quiet Strategy For Global Dominance
• 01:13:15 Is America’s Superpower Era Ending?
• 01:16:29 Why China May Benefit From A U.S. Conflict With Iran
• 01:22:51 The Real Long-Term Prize The U.S. Is Fighting For

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